NHL Inbox: Your Hockey Questions Answered
Hockey fans submit their burning questions each month, and we dive into everything from trade scenarios to advanced statistics.
The questions below were edited for clarity and brevity.
Should the Maple Leafs Trade Auston Matthews?
Jeff M. asks: Has the Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup window closed? They still don’t have a proven No. 1 goalie or No. 1 defenseman, and their No. 1 forward is injury-prone. Would it not be better to rebuild on the fly and trade Auston Matthews now? For instance, L.A. needs scoring and a superstar. Could you possibly get Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke for Matthews? Building around Joseph Woll, Clarke, Matthew Knies, and Byfield would give the Leafs a solid base and allow them to contend when Florida’s window starts to close.
Is Matthews suddenly underrated?
No player has scored more total goals or goals per game than Matthews since his rookie season in 2016-17. The Leafs captain has produced night after night over a massive 629-game sample. He’s recorded 401 goals compared to Leon Draisaitl’s 378 in second place.
Matthews averages 0.64 goals per game. Kirill Kaprizov ranks second at 0.58.
The skepticism makes sense. Matthews turns 28 next week and always seems to be dealing with an injury or ailment. Sometimes the issue keeps him out of the lineup. Other times it limits his effectiveness.
His resume lacks a deep playoff run.
Despite all of this, the concern isn’t anywhere near the “trade a consensus top-five player” threshold. Jeff’s creativity in sending the Arizona native to a big market close to home and getting two studs in return is interesting though.
The Cup window’s open as long as Matthews and William Nylander remain productive and the blue line-goalie combo is strong. So three to four years?
Toronto isn’t an inner-circle Cup contender. They may never be in the Matthews era – two series wins in nine years is evidence of that.
The post-Mitch Marner era will be interesting to watch. Sprinkling Marner’s cap dollars throughout the forward group instead of finding one player to replace him was reasonable. Plus, the Leafs are entering a season with cap space to play with for once.
What’s the Ideal Salary Structure for Contenders?
Rob F. asks: What’s the ideal salary pyramid for a contending NHL team? Top pay for a handful of stars and minimum wage for the third and fourth lines? Or a more balanced share? And which teams would you say match the ideal?
A lot depends on the quality and quantity of high-end talent.
If you’re a general manager with one or two of the top-10 players in the world like Edmonton or Colorado, you pay market rate or higher to keep the cornerstones happy. Then fill out the rest of the roster.
Everything flows downstream from superstars in a league that’s more star-centric than ever.
If you have three or four star-caliber players like Toronto before Marner’s departure or Tampa Bay, you must be careful not to overcommit to all of them. Four big-money contracts will severely limit flexibility.
GMs tend to get themselves in trouble further down the lineup. The good ones are cutthroat with role players. They refuse to hand over term to bottom-six forwards and third-pair defensemen.
Pierre Engvall’s seven-year, $21-million deal with the Islanders and Tanner Jeannot’s five-year, $17-million contract with the Bruins come to mind as poor bets.
Why devote valuable cap space to a flawed veteran when a younger, cheaper option will present itself within months?
Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, and Tampa Bay are contenders with clean books.
GMs need to identify their long-term core early in the team-building process. Then work to quickly sign those core pieces to long-term extensions.
New Jersey and Utah are examples: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Clayton Keller, and Dylan Guenther are all on sweetheart deals because management signed burgeoning stars to lengthy second contracts.
There will always be whiffs on young players. But the risk associated with signing a promising yet inexperienced talent to a long-term deal is fairly low.
Take 22-year-old Jackson Blake, who’s appeared in just 81 total NHL games. If his eight-year, $45-million contract starting in 2026-27 doesn’t pan out in Carolina, surely another franchise will jump at the chance to “fix” the young forward with a change-of-scenery trade.
How Do Refs Decide Four-on-Four vs Five-on-Five?
Charles S. asks: I’ve been watching the NHL for decades but have never been able to find an answer to this question: When both teams are simultaneously called for minor penalties, how do the referees decide if play will resume four-on-four or five-on-five? Is this an arbitrary, in-the-moment decision, or one based on a rule such as whether the penalties were assessed before or after the whistle?
According to the official NHL rulebook, there are three scenarios in which play resumes four-on-four after coincidental penalties.
Scenario 1
• Team A: Player assessed minor penalty and misconduct
• Team B: Player assessed minor
Scenario 2
• Team A: Player assessed minor and misconduct
• Team B: Player assessed minor and misconduct
Scenario 3
• Team A: Player assessed minor, teammate assessed misconduct
• Team B: Player assessed minor, teammate assessed misconduct
The through line here is the misconduct. Without one, play resumes five-on-five.
Can the Rangers Bounce Back Next Season?
Joe G. asks: As a (mostly) long-suffering New York Rangers fan, is there any hope this team can bounce back and make the playoffs in 2025-26? The loss of Chris Kreider doesn’t bother me as much as the fact that I have no idea what to expect from Mika Zibanejad and Alexis Lafreniere. Outside of Artemi Panarin, where is all the scoring coming from? Talk me off the ledge.
Yes, there’s hope. The Rangers are a probable playoff team after an aggressive eight-month retooling effort by GM Chris Drury.
Drama, roster turnover, and malaise filled the Rangers’ 2024-25 season. Yet they finished with a respectable 85 points.
With stability restored, an Adam Fox bounce-back season coming, and Mike Sullivan’s arrival providing the classic new-coach bump, the 2025-26 team is primed for 90-100 points.
Of course, claiming a playoff spot is never as simple as hitting a specific point total. If Carolina, New Jersey, and Washington grab the Metropolitan Division seeds again, the Rangers are left to battle with Columbus and three to four Atlantic squads for the two Eastern Conference wild-card spots.
The postseason is within grasp but not guaranteed.
You’re right, Joe: Scoring will likely be an issue. The forward group is underwhelming, and its key pieces are getting up there in age. Panarin turns 34 in October. J.T. Miller, Vincent Trocheck, and Zibanejad are all 32.
Zibanejad is what he is at this point: a slow, unreliable five-on-five producer whose heavy shot still scares goalies on the power play.
Star goalie Igor Shesterkin and a revamped blue line should make up for the average attack. Fox and Braden Schneider plus four relative newcomers, most notably shutdown specialist Vladislav Gavrikov.
In his introductory press conference, Sullivan emphasized winning through stifling team defense. The Rangers have the defensive talent to keep pucks out of their net.
What Are the Most Important Player Stats?
Blair B. asks: What do you feel is the most important stat (or two) you would review to evaluate a player’s ability? We have so many stats now – WAR, saves above replacement, Corsi, Fenwick – but which ones matter the most?
Each position is unique, so let’s break this down into three parts.
Forward: Corsi has become less useful over the years as the NHL has moved from obsessing over shots on goal to obsessing over grade A scoring chances. To gauge a forward’s underlying contributions, check their five-on-five expected goals numbers first.
Expected goals does a far better job capturing what happens when a player’s on the ice than Corsi, plus-minus, or in some cases even points.
The object of the game is to score more goals than the other team. Having a high expected goals share should lead to a positive goal differential over time, which naturally leads to wins.
Defenseman: The detailed metrics from Sportlogiq are helpful. You can grasp a blue-liner’s true impact on the defensive side by looking at who consistently ranks highly in loose-puck recoveries, puck-battle wins, blocked passes, stick checks, defensive-zone denials, and similar categories.
The eye test tells us Miro Heiskanen is an elite defensive player. His per-game rankings in those categories confirm it – first in defensive-zone denials, fourth in loose-puck recoveries, and ninth in blocked passes last season.
We now have detailed data to draw conclusions from.
Goalie: Goals-against average isn’t referenced in coverage because it’s a team stat, not a goalie stat. Save percentage is okay.
However, goals saved above expected is a major upgrade on both because it pinpoints the difference between the goalie’s performance and the defensive environment. It’s important to know the quality of shots and chances he’s facing.
The save percentage leaderboard is filled with goalies on good teams. The goals saved above expected leaderboard is filled with goalies playing well, regardless of team success.
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