The Dallas Stars’ season ended Thursday night with another Western Conference Final loss to the Edmonton Oilers. It’s the second straight year the Oilers have eliminated Dallas at this stage.
This was supposed to be the year Dallas finally broke through. The Stars had come close to their second Stanley Cup in 2020, 2023, and 2024.
General manager Jim Nill went all-in at the trade deadline. The Stars acquired Mikko Rantanen, Mikael Granlund, and Cody Ceci. They’re now without first-round picks for three of the next four drafts.
Rantanen signed an eight-year extension after the trade. He gave Dallas the top-line game-breaker they needed.
Granlund added offensive depth to an already strong forward group.
Ceci was brought in to help the right side of the defense. But it’s fair to question whether he made much difference.
The failure to properly address right defense became a major problem. Nill is up for his third straight GM of the year award, but he’s not perfect.
Ceci struggled against Edmonton. He went minus-5 in five games with a 46.75% expected goals share at five-on-five.
Nill’s other right defense additions from the offseason fared even worse. Ilya Lyubushkin and Matt Dumba combined for just one appearance in the Western Conference Final.
Lyubushkin was a healthy scratch in Games 2-5. He signed a three-year deal worth $3.25 million annually last summer.
Dumba was a healthy scratch for the entire postseason. His $3.75-million cap hit was questionable when signed July 1. He’s under contract for next year too, which creates problems given Dallas’ cap situation.
Cap Crunch Coming
Extensions for Rantanen ($12M), Wyatt Johnston ($8.4M), and Jake Oettinger ($8.25M) kick in next season. Those deals eat up significant cap space.
The Stars enter the offseason with just $4.95 million in cap space and only 16 players under contract.
| LW | C | RW |
|---|---|---|
| Robertson | Hintz | Rantanen |
| Marchment | Johnston | Seguin |
| Steel | ||
| Back |
| LD | RD | G |
|---|---|---|
| Harley | Heiskanen | Oettinger |
| Lindell | Lyubushkin | DeSmith |
| Bichsel | Dumba |
Several key players are unrestricted free agents. Captain Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Evgenii Dadonov, Colin Blackwell, Granlund, and Ceci can all sign elsewhere.
Mavrik Bourque and Nils Lundkvist are restricted free agents due for modest raises. Bourque could be a prime offer sheet target.
Difficult Decisions Ahead
Nill must find a way to move Dumba’s $3.75 million contract. The cost to do so likely won’t be cheap.
Lyubushkin could be easier to trade, but he’s more useful than Dumba.
Mason Marchment earns $4.5 million in the final year of his deal. He could become a cap casualty, though Dallas would get something positive in return.
One thing is clear: A team built on depth will be much thinner in 2025-26. If the Stars couldn’t beat Edmonton this year, what chance do they have next season with a weaker roster?
The Stars will remain competitive. A core built around Rantanen, Hintz, Robertson, Johnston, Heiskanen, Harley, and Oettinger should be good for years.
But it’s hard to imagine Dallas replicating the depth of this season’s team anytime soon.
(Cap source: PuckPedia)
(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)
