The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers will meet in the first Stanley Cup Final rematch since the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins faced each other in both 2008 and 2009. The Panthers beat the Oilers in a seven-game series last year, but who has the edge this time around?
Forwards
The Oilers enter the finals with the top three scorers still playing in McDavid (26 points), Draisaitl (25), and Nugent-Hopkins (19). Edmonton also leads all playoff teams by averaging 4.06 goals per game.
Even with Zach Hyman unavailable, the Oilers offer a balanced attack. They have 19 different goal scorers this postseason and seven healthy skaters with at least five goals.
The Panthers don’t have the offensive firepower the Oilers do, but they’re balanced too. Florida also has 19 goal scorers so far and is getting contributions from its top three lines. Bennett leads the playoffs with 10 goals, and 10 Panthers have reached double-digit points this spring compared to seven Oilers.
The Cats also have one of the most clutch scorers in the league in Verhaeghe.
Both teams have depth, but it’s hard to bet against McDavid and Draisaitl. They’re the two best forwards in the series and have revenge on their minds. Florida was able to neutralize McDavid in a few games last year, but he still had 11 points in the series and has only been held off the scoresheet twice so far this postseason.
Advantage: Oilers
Defense
Edmonton’s blue line was a weakness during the regular season, but it’s been solid in the playoffs. This happened even without Ekholm until Game 5 of the Western Conference Final.
Ekholm’s return puts Kulak in a better spot on the second pairing. Walman and Klingberg – both midseason acquisitions – have been surprises as the third pair, sporting a 56.7% expected goals share together at five-on-five this postseason.
Getting Jones midseason has given the Panthers arguably the best top-four defensive core in the league. Jones, Ekblad, and Mikkola are all at least 6-foot-4, while Forsling is a world-class skater and defender.
The veteran third pair of Kulikov and Schmidt isn’t flashy, but it’s reliable.
No defenseman on Florida can match Bouchard’s offensive ability – he has 17 points in 16 games these playoffs. But we’re giving the Panthers the edge here. There are fewer weaknesses on their back end.
It’s fair to wonder how long it will take Ekholm to get up to speed for Edmonton. He logged just 15:52 in his return to the lineup. There’s also the question of whether a Nurse-led second pair can hold up against Florida’s balanced offensive attack.
Advantage: Panthers
Goaltending
Goaltending is the least debatable position in this series. That doesn’t mean it would be shocking if Skinner outplayed Bobrovsky in the Cup Final, but giving Edmonton the edge would be bold.
Skinner’s inconsistency makes him harder to trust. He’s been lights out in six wins this postseason, registering a .967 save percentage. But he’s struggled in his four losses, sporting an .816 save percentage.
He was pulled for Pickard following back-to-back losses to begin the playoffs. Pickard went 6-0 before he was hurt, though with an .888 save percentage.
The Panthers have started Bobrovsky for all 17 games this postseason. He’s been solid with a .912 save percentage, a 2.11 goals-against average, and three shutouts.
Plus, there’s something comforting about having a virtually guaranteed future Hall of Famer between the pipes.
Advantage: Panthers
Coaching
Both Paul Maurice and Kris Knoblauch have led their teams back to the Stanley Cup Final. It’s easy to say Maurice has the advantage since he won the matchup last year, but this season’s story needs more context.
Knoblauch’s made all the right moves since the Oilers fell into a 2-0 hole against the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1. The club has only lost two games despite having to change goalies multiple times.
Every team Edmonton has eliminated went into the playoffs seeded higher in the standings. But the Oilers are dominating opponents at five-on-five this spring with a 54.42% expected goals rate and 61.76% goal share.
Maurice is the standard-bearer among NHL coaches after winning three consecutive conference titles. No team has bought into their system more, and the Panthers somehow look better every season despite playing more hockey than any other team over the last few years.
Since falling behind 2-0 to the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 2, Florida is 8-2 and has outscored opponents 40-18. Maurice’s system – hard forechecks and active defense – frequently overwhelms opponents, but the Oilers know that from last year.
It’ll be fascinating to see what adjustments are made.
Advantage: To be determined
Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick
