NHL fans checking headlines this week got confused about one big question: Is Connor McDavid signing a contract extension with Edmonton or not?
The confusion makes sense. Most NHL stars choose long-term deals over the uncertainty of unrestricted free agency. Some players, like Sidney Crosby, sign multiple extensions to guarantee they’ll retire with one team.
McDavid is 28 and playing at his peak. He’s entering the final season of his eight-year, $100-million contract.
He became eligible to sign a new deal with the Oilers on July 1. But it’s September and McDavid’s future beyond 2025-26 remains unclear. At Team Canada’s Olympic orientation camp in Calgary last week, he told reporters he has “every intention to win in Edmonton” but “all options are on the table.”
League sources confirm McDavid is being truthful. He hasn’t decided his future yet.
His options include re-signing before the season starts, during the season, after the season, or testing free agency next July. That last option would make him the most sought-after unrestricted free agent in league history.
Why Hasn’t McDavid Re-Signed Yet?
This isn’t a normal contract situation. The Oilers are prepared to give McDavid essentially a blank check.
But McDavid isn’t convinced Edmonton can be a top Stanley Cup contender beyond 2025-26. Most of the core supporting him and Leon Draisaitl is aging. Key players like Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Darnell Nurse are all 30 or older.
The next wave of talent isn’t impressive.
Isaac Howard and Matthew Savoie lead a prospect group ranked 30th by Elite Prospects and 31st by The Athletic. Both wingers might challenge for top-six spots this season, but neither has a high ceiling.
The goaltending position’s future is completely unclear.
What Can Management Do?
Edmonton lost to Florida in Game 7 of the 2024 Cup Final, then in Game 6 of the 2025 final. They’ve come close twice in two years.
That’s the pitch to McDavid: We’re right there.
Signing Evan Bouchard to a four-year deal in June was good. But the rest of the summer wasn’t productive. Howard and Andrew Mangiapane were Edmonton’s biggest acquisitions.
General manager Stan Bowman must get creative, which is tough. Edmonton has a cap crunch with just $225,834 in space, according to PuckPedia. The team doesn’t have its 2026 first-round pick or young players it could trade for impact talent.
McDavid has been an Oiler for a decade. He’s been productive, patient, and grown into a leader.
He doesn’t owe the organization anything. He wants to win the Cup.
Could This Become a Distraction?
Maybe. But this is a special case.
McDavid has been under intense pressure since he was young. Any noise from entering the season without an extension likely won’t affect his play. He’s exceptional partly because he performs at an elite level regardless of outside factors.
How McDavid’s uncertain future affects the rest of the roster remains unclear.
The Case for Re-Signing
Edmonton can offer things other teams can’t:
- Draisaitl (perfect running mate signed through 2032-33)
- Established roots (wife Lauren has launched multiple businesses)
- Longer contract (only Edmonton can offer eight years)
- Unfinished business (third time’s a charm in the Cup Final?)
The grass isn’t always greener elsewhere.
McDavid has tremendous bargaining power in Edmonton. He’s the best player in the world, and the salary cap is rising. Maybe he signs for one year to keep pressure on management and maximize earnings. Perhaps a two-to-five-year deal works. Or eight years might be right.
McDavid’s agent is Judd Moldaver, who also represents Auston Matthews. Matthews has been comfortable with medium-term deals – five years in 2019 and four years in 2023.
What Kind of Money?
McDavid will raise the salary bar wherever he signs.
Draisaitl is the highest earner for 2025-26 at a record $14 million average annual value. That was 15.2% of last September’s salary cap. The collective bargaining agreement allows a maximum 20%.
With the 2025-26 cap at $95.5 million, McDavid could max out at $19.1 million per year if he signs before season’s end.
It’s difficult to build a championship team with one player taking a fifth of the payroll for a 23-man roster. Even though McDavid might deserve nearly $20 million per season, the chances of him signing for the maximum are slim.
McDavid signed for 15.7% of the cap in 2017. That’s still the highest percentage of all time.
